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Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Kenneth is moving over SSTs below 26 deg C and continues to weaken.
Using a blend of CI- and T-numbers from TAFB and SAB, the current
intensity is set to 70 kt.  Continued weakening is likely as the
cyclone moves over progressively cooler waters and increasing
south-southwesterly shear associated with a broad upper-level trough
to the west of Kenneth.  The official intensity forecast is close to
the latest D-SHIPS guidance and calls for the system to decay
rapidly to a tropical depression in 36 hours and to a remnant low in
48 hours, although this could occur even sooner than shown here.

Microwave data suggest that the low-level center is displaced a bit
to the southwest of the mid-level center.  The initial motion is
now estimated to be north-northwestward or 330/10 kt.  No
significant changes have been made to the track forecast or
reasoning.  Global models show a break in the subtropical ridge
associated with a mid-level trough near 140W longitude over the
next few days.  Kenneth should continue to move north-northwestward
through the break until later in the forecast period when the
shallow cyclone is likely to turn to the left following the
low-level flow.  The official track forecast follows the latest
dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 20.9N 133.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 22.2N 133.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 24.1N 134.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 25.7N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 27.1N 136.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1200Z 28.7N 136.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1200Z 30.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1200Z 31.0N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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