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Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Kenneth is on a strengthening trend.  The cloud pattern of the
tropical storm consists of a central dense overcast and curved outer
bands, mostly on the south and west portions of the circulation.  A
partial SSMI/S overpass around 1500 UTC shows a mid-level eye
feature, but it also indicated that the system is still vertically
tilted from northeast to southwest, likely the result of
northeasterly shear.  The Dvorak classifications from TAFB/SAB
and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are
unanimously 3.5/55 kt, and the initial wind speed is increased to
that value.

Kenneth is moving west-northwestward at 16 kt on the south
side of a narrow mid-level ridge.  A decrease in forward speed and a
turn to the northwest is expected during the next 2 to 3 days
while the storm moves toward the southwestern periphery of the
ridge.  Thereafter, an even slower motion toward the north-northwest
is forecast as Kenneth moves into a break in the ridge caused by a
large-scale trough off of the west coast of the United States.  The
track models have shifted a little to the south and west this cycle,
and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in those directions.

The environmental conditions appear generally favorable for Kenneth
to keep strengthening during the next 36 hours or so, and the system
is forecast to become a hurricane as early as tonight.  After
that time, SSTs fall below 26 deg C along the expected path of
Kenneth, and these cool waters combined with a drier air mass should
end the strengthening trend and induce gradual weakening.  An
increase in south-southwesterly shear in 4 to 5 days will also aid
in the weakening process.  The NHC intensity forecast is higher than
the previous one and is in best agreement with the IVCN and HCCA
consensus models.  This forecast also calls for Kenneth to become a
post-tropical cyclone by the end of the period when it will be over
SSTs near 22 deg C.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 15.9N 123.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 16.5N 125.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 17.2N 127.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 18.1N 130.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 19.1N 131.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 21.8N 133.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 24.4N 134.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 27.1N 135.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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