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Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
200 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Microwave data reveal that Kenneth is not well organized yet
with the low- and mid-level centers well separated. The low-level
center is located on the northeastern edge of the convection due to
northerly shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model. The overall outflow
pattern is well established. A partial ASCAT pass around 0500 UTC
and Dvorak estimates indicate that the initial intensity remains at
35 kt. The shear is forecast to decrease a little, and Kenneth will
be moving over warm waters for the next two days. On this basis, the
NHC forecast calls for some strengthening, and Kenneth could become
a hurricane by Sunday. By the end of the forecast period, the
cyclone is expected to be moving over cooler waters and weakening
should then begin.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest
or 285 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is embedded within the flow
around the subtropical high, and this track should continue for
the next day or two. After that time, Kenneth should have reached
the western end of ridge, and it should then gradually turn more to
the northwest or north-northwest. For the next 2 to 3 days, the
track guidance is pretty tightly clustered, increasing the
confidence in the forecast. Beyond 3 days, the forecast is less
certain since the guidance spread is large. The NHC forecast is in
the middle of the guidance envelope which is bounded by the ECMWF on
the west side and by the GFS and the HWRF models on the right. The
official forecast does not depart much from the previous one during
the first 3 days, and is shifted a little bit to the right
thereafter.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 15.6N 120.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 16.0N 122.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 16.6N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 17.5N 127.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 18.5N 129.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 20.5N 131.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 23.5N 132.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 26.5N 133.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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