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Tropical Depression JOVA


Tropical Depression Jova Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122017
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Strong northeasterly shear and an unfavorable thermodynamic
environment continue to take a toll on Jova.  The most recent
transient burst of deep convection associated with the system has
recently dissipated, but it has not been absent long enough to
declare the system a remnant low just yet.  Recent scatterometer
data indicate that maximum winds have decreased to 25 kt, and this
value will be used as the initial intensity for this advisory.
Shear, cool waters, and stable air ahead of Jova should continue the
weakening process, and Jova is likely to become a remnant low this
evening or overnight. However, brief bursts of disorganized
convection could occur over the next day or so.

Jova is moving westward or 270/12 kt.  The track forecast reasoning
is unchanged from the previous advisory.  The cyclone is expected
to move westward to west-southwestward to the south of a low- to
mid-level ridge until dissipation occurs later this week.  The
latest track guidance and consensus models have shifted a little
southward, so the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly.  The
updated track is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF runs.


INIT  13/2100Z 20.4N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 20.3N 120.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  14/1800Z 20.0N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  15/0600Z 19.7N 124.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/1800Z 19.3N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/1800Z 18.3N 131.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Brown