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Tropical Depression JOVA


Tropical Depression Jova Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122017
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Conventional satellite imagery and an earlier GCOM-W1 composite
microwave pass show that the fully exposed low-level center is
becoming more ill-defined, particularly in the northeastern portion
of the circulation.  Although, deep convection has persisted well
to the west of the surface center, tops have generally warmed
and the overall area of convective mass has been shrinking.  A blend
of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates supports holding on to
an initial intensity of 30 kt for this advisory.

Easterly shear of 15 to 20 kt, gradually decreasing oceanic
temperatures, and intrusion of a more stable air mass from the north
should cause the depression to degenerate into a remnant low later
today. However, brief bursts of disorganized convection may continue
to develop during the next couple of days.  There are no changes to
the NHC intensity forecast from the previous one, and the depression
is expected to become a remnant low by tonight.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/12 kt.  A
subtropical ridge currently anchored over the northeastern Pacific
is forecast to gradually build toward the Hawaiian Islands around
mid-week which should cause the depression to gradually turn
toward the west-southwest, before opening up into a trough in 4
days.  The deterministic and ensemble models agree well with this
scenario, and the official track forecast follows suit.


INIT  13/1500Z 20.4N 117.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 20.4N 119.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  14/1200Z 20.2N 121.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  15/0000Z 20.0N 123.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/1200Z 19.8N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/1200Z 19.0N 130.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Roberts