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Tropical Depression JOVA


Tropical Depression Jova Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122017
900 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Satellite images show the exposed center of Jova continuing to move
westward with a burst of convection about 50 n mi away in the
southwest quadrant.  Dvorak classifications suggest the maximum
winds are still about 30 kt.  The depression should gradually spin
down due to strong vertical wind shear, cooling SSTs, and
entrainment of the stable air mass of the northeastern Pacific.
Model guidance is in excellent agreement on this environment so the
new NHC prediction is very similar to the previous one.  Remnant low
status is anticipated in about 24 hours, although predicting
convective trends over marginally warm waters is difficult.

Jova is moving faster to the west now at about 13 kt.  A subtropical
ridge should build to the north of the cyclone, steering the
depression, or its remnants, to the west or west-southwest until it
opens up into a trough in 3-4 days.  The global and hurricane models
are in good agreement on this scenario as well, and the new NHC
forecast is unchanged from the previous one.


INIT  13/0300Z 20.6N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 20.7N 116.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 20.8N 119.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/1200Z 20.8N 121.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/0000Z 20.7N 123.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/0000Z 20.2N 128.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Blake