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Tropical Depression Irwin Discussion Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 01 2017

Irwin basically consists of a tight swirl of low clouds devoid
of deep convection. Dvorak numbers have continued to decrease, and
assuming that winds have diminished since the last ASCAT pass about
8 hours ago, the initial intensity is set at 30 kt.

The cyclone is already moving over cold waters of about 22 deg C.
On this basis, weakening should continue, and Irwin is anticipated
to become a remnant low this afternoon.

Irwin is moving toward the north-northwest or 335 degrees at 9 kt.
A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected today as the cyclone
becomes a shallow system steered by the low-level flow.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 25.9N 129.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 27.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  02/1200Z 28.0N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  03/0000Z 29.0N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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