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Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017
800 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017
Irwin isn't quite dead yet, with a new burst of convection in the
eastern semicircle, despite the storm being over sub-23C waters.
Intensity estimates are unchanged, so the winds are kept at 40 kt.
This burst should be short lived, and Irwin is forecast to lose all
remaining deep convection tomorrow over sub-22C waters. The cyclone
is expected to gradually spin down, and ultimately dissipate in 2 to
3 days. The NHC intensity forecast remains the same as the last
advisory, following the model consensus.
Irwin continues to move north-northwestward on the west side of a
mid-level high following behind the remnants of Hilary. This motion
is expected to continue for about another day, with Irwin predicted
to turn northwestward and slow down as the cyclone becomes shallow.
There is no significant change to the guidance, and the official
forecast is very close to the previous one.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 23.8N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 25.3N 129.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 26.8N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/1200Z 28.0N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/0000Z 29.1N 132.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW