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Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017

Convection has continued to rapidly wane with only a small band of
modest thunderstorm activity with tops to -30C restricted to the
southeastern quadrant. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35
kt based on a blend of available intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB,
and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON. This rapid weakening trend is forecast
to continue since Hilary is now moving over sub-22 C SSTs and into
an extensive field of stable, cold-air stratocumulus clouds. These
unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause Hilary to
degenerate into a remnant low pressure system tonight, if not
sooner.

The initial motion estimate is 300/11 kt. As Hilary continues to
lose its deep vertical circulation, the shallow cyclone should
maintain a general west-northwestward motion along the southern
periphery of a deep-layer ridge until dissipation occurs in 72 h.
The NHC track forecast remains along the southern portion of the
tightly clustered guidance and is close to the previous advisory
track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 23.9N 125.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 24.9N 127.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 25.8N 129.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/0000Z 26.3N 131.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/1200Z 26.7N 133.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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