ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017
Although the convection is not very deep at this time, the
organization of the cloud pattern has continued to improve with
various curved bands wrapping around the center. An average of the
objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers suggest that the winds are
still 30 kt. The depression is embedded within an ideal moist
environment with low shear and it is moving over warm SSTs. On this
basis, the NHC forecast calls for strengthening, and the depression
could reach hurricane status in about 48 hours or sooner. The
intensity forecast is a little above guidance given such a
prevailing favorable environment.
The best estimate of the initial motion is 280 degrees at 12 kt.
The depression is moving around the periphery of a strong
subtropical ridge extending from Mexico westward across the
Pacific. This flow pattern is likely steer the cyclone between the
west and west-northwest during the next 2 to 3 days toward a
weakness of the ridge. After that time, the ridge is forecast to
amplify and will likely force the cyclone to move with a more
westerly component. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous
one and continues to be in the middle of the track guidance
envelope. This forecast keeps the core of the cyclone well south of
the coast of Mexico at this time.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 9.0N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 9.3N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 10.0N 98.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 11.4N 100.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 12.5N 102.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 14.5N 104.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 16.0N 107.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 17.5N 111.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
$$
Forecaster Avila
NNNN