ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017
The deep convection associated with Eugene is rapidly waning.
While the Dvorak assessments from ADT, SAB, and TAFB suggest a
low-end tropical storm at this time, an AMSU pass back at 1417Z
generated intensity estimates of around 60 kt from CIRA and CIMSS.
However, it is unlikely that these maximum winds are valid because
of the increased stability over the stratocumulus-blanketed waters.
A blend of the Dvorak and AMSU estimates gives 45 kt for the
The diminished deep convection and visible imagery allow for a more
accurate determination of Eugene's initial position and motion,
which is northwestward at 8 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to
continue moving in the same direction and speed for the next couple
of days, as it is rounding the southwestern portion of a mid-level
subtropical ridge. The official track forecast is nearly unchanged
and is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique.
Eugene should continue its weakening due to ingestion of stable air
as it moves over the cool waters west of Baja California. It is
expected that the cyclone will lose its deep convection and become
a remnant low in about a day - or sooner - and dissipate completely
in four to five days. The official intensity forecast is the same
as that previously and is based upon the IVCN multi-model consensus
Swells generated by Eugene will continue to propagate northward
along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern
California during the next couple days, causing high surf and
dangerous rip current conditions. Please refer to statements
issued by your local weather office for additional information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 21.7N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 22.5N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 23.6N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/0600Z 24.7N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/1800Z 25.8N 123.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1800Z 27.6N 125.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/1800Z 28.5N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW