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Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017
300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

The convection associated with Dora continues to decrease, with the
center now exposed to the west of a small area of deep convection.
Various satellite intensity estimates range from 54-77 kt, while a
recent ASCAT overpass suggested winds of about 45 kt. The initial
intensity is lowered to 55 kt, and it is possible that this is
generous.  Dora should continue to rapidly weaken as it moves over
colder sea surface temperatures, and the system is expected to
become a remnant low in 36 h or less.  The official intensity
forecast is again in close agreement with the model consensus ICON.

The initial motion is 290/11.  A mid-level subtropical ridge to the
north of Dora should maintain the west-northwestward motion, with
some decrease in forward speed, over the next 36-48 h.  After that,
a westward or south of westward motion is expected.  The official
forecast track is similar to the previous track, but it lies to the
south of the model consensus between 24-48 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 19.6N 111.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 20.1N 112.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 20.6N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 21.2N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1800Z 21.7N 117.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1800Z 21.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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