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Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017
Satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone has been
intensifying. The overall coverage of the deep convection has been
increasing with more banding features noted than late yesterday.
Microwave and conventional satellite data also suggest that some
primitive inner-core features have developed. Based on the
increased central organization and a Dvorak classification of 2.5
from TAFB, the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt.
There are no obvious environmental impediments to further
strengthening during the next couple of days with low shear, high
mid-level moisture, and warm SSTs in the forecast. Guidance is in
good agreement on steady intensification, and Dora could become a
hurricane in a day or two. Thereafter, Dora should move across much
cooler SSTs and into a more dry and stable airmass, causing the
cyclone to weaken and eventually become a remnant low by day 4. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is adjusted a bit upward in agreement
with the HWRF, SHIPS and NOAA corrected-consensus models.
The initial motion is west-northwest or 300 degrees at 10 kt. A
large mid-level high centered over northwestern Mexico should
continue to steer Dora on this general course during the next couple
of days. The storm will likely take a westward turn by midweek once
the cyclone weakens and becomes more steered by the lower-level
winds. Model guidance remains in good agreement on this track,
resulting in high confidence that Dora will move parallel to the
coast of Mexico, keeping the tropical-storm-force winds offshore.
Only cosmetic changes were made to the previous forecast, and the
NHC track prediction remains close to the multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 14.7N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 15.5N 102.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 16.4N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 17.5N 106.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 18.4N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 19.5N 111.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 20.3N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0600Z 20.0N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW