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Tropical Depression ONE-E


Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012017
400 PM CDT Tue May 09 2017

The cloud pattern of the low pressure area located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of El Salvador has continued to become better
organized, with developing convective banding features.  Also, data
from a recent ASCAT overpass showed that a closed circulation has
developed.  Therefore advisories are being initiated on this system.
 The intensity is set at 30 kt in agreement with the scatterometer
measurements and a Dvorak classification from SAB. The tropical
cyclone is expected to remain over warm waters of SSTs near 30 deg C
through the forecast period, and the global models show the system
remaining beneath an upper-level anticyclone with well-defined
outflow.  Thus, strengthening is likely and the official intensity
forecast is a little below the intensity model consensus.

Geostationary satellite and scatterometer fixes indicate that the
initial motion is 300/5 kt.  The tropical cyclone is expected to be
situated to the south of a mid-level anticyclone, centered over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, for the next several days.  This
steering pattern should maintain a general west-northwestward motion
through 72 hours or so.  Later in the forecast period, the
anticyclone is predicted to weaken and this should induce a turn to
the north.  The official track forecast is roughly in the middle of
the dynamical track guidance, and is between the GFS and ECMWF


INIT  09/2100Z  9.3N  91.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z  9.7N  91.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 10.1N  93.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 10.5N  94.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 10.8N  95.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 12.0N  96.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 13.0N  96.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 14.0N  96.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

Forecaster Pasch