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Tropical Storm RINA


Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017
1100 PM AST Tue Nov 07 2017

Rina's satellite presentation has acquired some sub-tropical
characteristics this evening as it interacts with a mid- to
upper-level trough to its west and southwest.  The center remains
exposed to the south of the primary mass of convection, but the
convection has loosely wrapped around the northwestern portion of
the circulation which has lead to an increase in overall banding.
Recent ASCAT data shows that there has been an overall increase in
the size of the wind field and that the maximum winds have increased
to around 45 kt.  Rina is forecast to remain within an environment
of moderate shear and marginal instability during the next 24 hours,
however some additional strengthening is possible tonight and
Wednesday due to interaction with the aforementioned upper-level
trough.  By early Thursday, Rina will be moving over much colder
waters and is forecast to become post-tropical.  The cyclone should
become a fully extratropical low by late Thursday.

Rina continues to move northward or 010/16 kt. The track forecast
reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory.  The cyclone
should turn north-northeastward around a large high pressure system
over the eastern Atlantic by late Wednesday, and then begin to
accelerate northeastward on Thursday when it becomes embedded within
strong mid-latitude flow.  The track guidance remains in fairly good
agreement and the NHC forecast is again near the various consensus
aids to account for some differences in forward speed among the
global models.  The cyclone is expected to dissipate along a frontal
zone over the far north Atlantic in about 72 hours or less.


INIT  08/0300Z 35.4N  48.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 37.8N  48.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 41.2N  47.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 45.7N  43.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  10/0000Z 51.0N  37.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Brown