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Tropical Storm MARIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number  55
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017

The cloud pattern has deteriorated and the only convection left is
is a curved band of thunderstorms to the east of the center. Latest
SSMI microwave data clearly indicate that the low- and mid- level
centers are rapidly becoming separated. However, Dvorak estimates
still call for an initial intensity of 50 kt at this time.  Cold air
continues to entrain into the cyclone and Maria has probably already
began to acquire extratropical characteristics. Given the cold water
along the forecast track, Maria will probably become extratropical
in about 36 hours or even sooner.

The track is straightforward since the cyclone is well embedded in
the mid-latitude westerlies. This flow pattern will continue to
steer Maria on a general east-northeast track with increasing
forward speed until dissipation over the cold waters of the North
Atlantic.

The NHC forecast incorporates guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 37.8N  57.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 39.0N  52.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 41.5N  45.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 44.0N  38.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  01/1800Z 47.5N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  02/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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