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Hurricane MARIA


Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017

Deep convection and banding has increased over the eastern and
northeastern portion of the large circulation of Maria since
yesterday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has
measured peak flight-level winds of 74 kt and several believable
SFMR winds around 65 kt in the convection well northeast of the
center this morning.  Based on these data, the initial wind speed is
adjusted to 65 kt, which makes Maria a hurricane once again.
Although the shear is forecast to decrease over Maria during the
next couple of days, cool sea surface temperatures are likely to
result in a slow decrease in intensity.  The new NHC intensity
forecast is a little above the previous advisory due to the slightly
higher initial intensity.  Maria is expected to become an
extratropical low over the north Atlantic by 96 h and be absorbed by
a larger extratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic by day 5.

Maria is finally making its much anticipated north-northeast turn,
with an estimated motion of 015/5.  The hurricane is expected to
turn east-northeastward on Thursday as it enters the mid-latitude
westerly flow.  A trough moving into eastern North America late this
week should cause Maria to accelerate east-northeastward over the
north Atlantic on Friday and Saturday.  The spread in the guidance
is still largely along track after 36 hours, and the NHC forecast
remains near the model consensus to account for these differences.


1. Maria is forecast to slowly move away from the North Carolina
coast later today.  However, tropical storm conditions are expected
to continue along portions of the North Carolina coast through this

2. Storm surge flooding is occurring, especially along the sound
side of the North Carolina Outer Banks, and a storm surge warning
and watch are in effect for portions of eastern North Carolina.

3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of
the United States, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the
Turks and Caicos Islands.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office for more information.


INIT  27/1500Z 35.6N  72.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 36.1N  72.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 36.5N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 36.7N  67.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 37.7N  62.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 42.5N  47.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  01/1200Z 50.0N  26.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Forecaster Brown