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Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2017

Northerly shear continues to adversely affect the organization of
Lee.  The central dense overcast has become fairly asymmetric, with
most of the cold cloud tops limited to the southern semicircle, and
the eye is also losing definition. All of the various objective and
subjective satellite-based intensity estimates have decreased, and
the initial intensity has been lowered to 85 kt, based on a blend of
these data.

The global models continue to indicate that the northerly shear will
get stronger over the next two days.  This shear, combined with
progressively cooler SSTs along the forecast track of Lee, should
result in continued weakening.  The new intensity forecast shows a
slightly faster weakening rate than before, in line with the latest
intensity guidance.  The dynamical models all forecast Lee to
dissipate near a frontal zone around 48 h.  The NHC forecast
conservatively shows Lee as a tropical cyclone at that point, but
it would not be surprising if the cyclone dissipated or became a
remnant low between 36 and 48 h.

Lee is beginning to accelerate toward the north, and the initial
motion estimate is 010/10 kt.  The hurricane is forecast to turn
toward the northeast while accelerating in the fast mid-latitude
flow until it eventually opens up into a trough in a couple of days.
Very little change was made to the NHC forecast, which remains close
to HCCA and near the center of the tightly clustered global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 33.7N  57.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 35.7N  55.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 39.0N  51.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 42.9N  44.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 47.0N  34.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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