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BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017

...JOSE HEADED TOWARD THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 60.3W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda and Anguilla
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis
* British Virgin Islands
* St. Thomas and St. John

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 60.3 West. Jose is moving toward
the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A continued
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next
couple of days.  On the forecast track, the core of Jose will pass
close to or just east of the northern Leeward Islands today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down,
could occur during the next 24 hours.  Afterward, gradual weakening
is expected to occur.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area today.  Hurricane conditions are also possible within
the hurricane watch area today.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning areas by this morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by this morning and in the
watch area in the Virgin Islands by tonight.

RAINFALL:  Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla,
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to
produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin
Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing
flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
the hurricane warning areas.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands.  These swells are expected to continue for a couple
of days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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