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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2017

Jose continues to be affected by 20 kt of northerly vertical shear,
and recent microwave imagery shows that the low-level center is to
the northeast or north of a large burst of convection that shows
little evidence of banding. While satellite intensity estimates
have changed little since the last advisory, the sheared appearance
suggests the cyclone has continued to weaken, and the initial
intensity is thus reduced to 65 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS
satellite consensus.

The hurricane appears to have turned eastward with an initial motion
of 090/5. As a mid-level ridge first builds around and then moves
northeast of the cyclone, the track guidance forecasts Jose to make
an anticyclonic half-loop during the next 72 h.  After that time,
the confidence in the forecast decreases as the guidance diverges
significantly.  One the right side, the ECMWF and Canadian models
forecast a turn toward the north and northeast, while on the left
side the UKMET forecasts a westward motion towards the Bahamas.  The
GFS, HWRF, and the various consensus models are between these
extremes in forecasting a turn toward the northwest and eventually
north-northwest.  The new forecast track is in best agreement with
these models and shifts slightly to the right of the previous
advisory by 120 h.

A strong upper-level anticyclone near 28N 74W is the source of the
current shear.  As mentioned in the previous advisory, this feature
is supposed to weaken and pass north of the cyclone without allowing
much decrease in the shear through 48 h.  The large-scale models
then suggest the possibility of lighter shear from 48-72 h, followed
by increasing shear as Jose encounters an upper-level trough moving
eastward from the southeastern United States. Overall, the intensity
guidance shows small fluctuations in strength during the forecast
period, and there is little agreement in the guidance on the timing
of the various ups and downs.  The intensity forecast will follow
the shear trends in calling for some additional weakening during the
next 12-24 h, modest re-intensification during the lighter shear,
and no change during the subsequent increase in shear.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 27.5N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 27.5N  68.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 26.9N  66.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 26.0N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 25.3N  66.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  15/0600Z 25.5N  69.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  16/0600Z 27.5N  72.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  17/0600Z 30.0N  74.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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