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Hurricane JOSE


Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017

There has been some weakening of the inner core this morning,
specifically, considerable warming of the cloud tops and partial
erosion of the western portion of the eyewall.  Indications
from earlier microwave passes and radar imagery from the Leeward
Island of Guadeloupe reveal the possibility of an ongoing eyewall
replacement cycle (ERC). Subsequently, the initial intensity is
generously lowered to 130 kt for this advisory.  An aircraft
reconnaissance mission later this morning will provide a more
accurate measure of Jose's intensity.

Whether or not Jose completes the ERC cycle during the next several
hours is uncertain.  Regardless of the inner core structural
transition, Jose is still forecast to be a category 4 hurricane as
it closely approaches the northern Leeward Islands today.
Statistical and dynamical intensity guidance show gradual weakening
of the cyclone through day 5 as a result of increasing northerly
shear and drier, more stable mid-tropospheric air associated with an
approaching mid-latitude trough to the northwest of the cyclone.
The official forecast is above all of the available guidance through
24 hours, then corresponds to the IVCN multi-model consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/11
kt.  The eye of Jose is expected to turn northwestward and pass
just east of the northern Leeward Islands later today.  Jose should
slow down and turn north-northwestward in 72 hours in response to
the aforementioned deep-layer mid-level trough.  Large-scale
models have come in alignment with the trough leaving Jose behind to
meander in weaker mid-level westerly flow through day 5.  The NHC
forecast is basically an update of the previous package and is based
on a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus model and the ECMWF.


INIT  09/0900Z 17.5N  60.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 18.4N  61.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 19.9N  63.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 21.5N  65.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 23.1N  67.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 25.7N  69.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 26.5N  67.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 26.4N  66.3W   80 KT  90 MPH

Forecaster Roberts