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HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112017
0300 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE AND ON THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE AND ON THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA TO SUWANEE RIVER.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA TO FERNANDINA BEACH AND ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO
INDIAN PASS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
PROVINCE OF MATANZAS TO A HURRICANE WARNING.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD
DE LA HABANA.  THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GUANTANAMO HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TO ANCLOTE RIVER
* FLORIDA KEYS
* TAMPA BAY

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA
COUNTY LINE
* NORTH OF ANCLOTE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TO ANCLOTE RIVER
* FLORIDA KEYS
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY... CIEGO DE AVILA... SANCTI
SPIRITUS... VILLA CLARA... AND MATANZAS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND RAGGED ISLAND
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* NORTH AND WEST OF ANCLOTE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN... LAS TUNAS... LA HABANA... AND
CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA... FLORIDA... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N  77.7W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  924 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE  80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N  77.7W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N  77.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.6N  79.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE  90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.3N  80.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 110SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.5N  81.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.5N  81.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 110NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 140SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.6N  83.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 35.0N  87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 35.5N  87.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N  77.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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