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HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112017
2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FOR EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA TO SEBASTIAN INLET... AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.
 
THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA TO SUWANNEE RIVER.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF VENICE TO THE ANCLOTE
RIVER... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY... AND FROM PONCE INLET TO THE FLAGLER/
VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO VENICE
* FLORIDA KEYS
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
* NORTH OF VENICE TO ANCLOTE RIVER
* TAMPA BAY
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO ANNA
MARIA ISLAND
* FLORIDA KEYS
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY... CIEGO DE AVILA... SANCTI 
SPIRITUS... AND
VILLA CLARA
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
* NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO... HOLGUIN... LAS TUNAS AND MATANZAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO... HOLGUIN... AND LAS TUNAS
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... 
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA... FLORIDA... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN 
UNITED
STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N  76.5W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  925 MB
EYE DIAMETER  40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE  80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..510NE 180SE  60SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N  76.5W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  76.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.4N  78.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.0N  79.9W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.1N  81.0W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 110SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.7N  81.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 190NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.6N  83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 35.0N  85.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 35.6N  87.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N  76.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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