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Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

Harvey is gradually weakening as the center moves farther inland,
with the winds near the center diminishing and the central pressure
rising to near 998 mb.  However, scatterometer data and surface
observations indicate a band of 30-35 kt winds over the Gulf of
Mexico well to the southeast of the center, and this is the basis
for keeping Harvey a tropical storm.  The cyclone should weaken to
a depression in less than 12 hours, and continued slow weakening is
anticipated until the cyclone dissipates completely between
72-96 h.  It should be noted that the forecast weakening will not
eliminate the risk of continued heavy rainfall and flooding along
Harvey's path, although the system's faster motion will keep
subsequent rainfall totals well below what occurred over
southeastern Texas.

Harvey is wobbling back and forth around an overall motion of
020/7.  The cyclone is located on the northwestern side of a low- to
mid-tropospheric level ridge over the western Atlantic and eastern
Gulf of Mexico, which should steer it north-northeastward and then
northeastward across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys
during the next 72-96 h until the system dissipates.


Key Messages:

1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue
across southeastern Texas.  While the threat of heavy rains has
ended in the Houston/Galveston area, catastrophic and life-
threatening flooding will continue in and around Houston,
Beaumont/Port Arthur, eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest
of the week. Isolated storm totals have reached 50 inches over the
upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan
area. Please heed the advice of local officials.  Do not attempt to
travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded
roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.  A summary of rainfall totals compiled by
the Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

2. The flood threat has spread farther north and east, and
additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
amounts up to 10 inches are expected from southwestern Louisiana and
the adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Kentucky through Friday.  Please heed the advice of local officials
and refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard in these areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 30.8N  93.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  31/0600Z 31.8N  92.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  31/1800Z 33.5N  91.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  01/0600Z 35.1N  89.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  01/1800Z 36.4N  87.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  02/1800Z 38.6N  83.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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