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HURRICANE GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082017
2100 UTC WED AUG 16 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.7N  62.4W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  27 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  60SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE  80SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 240SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.7N  62.4W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N  64.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 40.7N  56.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  35SE  15SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  70SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 110SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 44.3N  48.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  35SE  20SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  70SE  50SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 48.3N  40.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  60SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 120SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 51.6N  35.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 54.3N  32.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.7N  62.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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