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TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
1500 UTC SUN SEP 11 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 116.8W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 116.8W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 116.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.2N 118.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.1N 119.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.9N 120.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.5N 120.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.1N 120.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 19.0N 123.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 18.5N 128.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 116.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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