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TROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2016

The convection associated with Orlene has now dissipated, and the
cyclone is comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.  The
initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt based mainly on continuity
from the previous advisory.  Unless the the convection returns,
which seems unlikely given the very dry air entraining into the
cyclone, Orlene is now expected to weaken to a depression in 12
hours or less and to degenerate to a remnant low in 24 hours or
less.

The initial motion is 270/9.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the
north of Orlene should steer it generally westward for 72 hours or
so, followed by a northwestward motion as the remnants approach a
weakness in the ridge.  The new forecast track is similar to the
previous track and close to the tightly clustered dynamical and
consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 19.9N 126.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 19.9N 128.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 19.9N 130.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/0600Z 19.9N 133.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1800Z 20.0N 135.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1800Z 21.0N 139.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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