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TROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2016

Convection associated with Orlene has decreased significantly during
the past six hours, with only a small area of shower activity
remaining southwest of the center.  The initial intensity is
reduced to 40 kt based on various satellite intensity estimates and
continuity from the previous advisory.  A combination of marginal
sea surface temperatures and entrainment of very dry air should
cause continued weakening through the forecast period even though
Orlene is in a light vertical shear environment.  The intensity
forecast calls for the cyclone to weaken to a tropical depression
in about 24 hours and degenerate to a remnant low in about 48
hours. If the convection does not return, both of these events could
happen earlier.

The initial motion is 270/10.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the
north of Orlene should steer it generally westward for 72 hours or
so, followed by a northwestward motion as the remnants approach a
weakness in the ridge.  The new forecast track is similar to the
previous track and close to the tightly clustered dynamical and
consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 19.8N 125.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 19.8N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 19.8N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 19.9N 132.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 20.0N 134.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1200Z 20.5N 139.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/1200Z 22.5N 142.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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