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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NEWTON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016
1200 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016

...NEWTON STILL STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE AT LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 107.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 235 MI...440 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to San Evaristo, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes
* north of Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos
* north of San Evaristo to Mulege
* Bahia Tempehuaya to Bahia Kino

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* north of Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro
* north of San Evaristo to Loreto

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* north of Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Mazatlan to south of Bahia Tempehuaya
* north of Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 107.6 West. Newton is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through early Tuesday.  A turn toward
the north-northwest, and then to the north, is expected late Tuesday
and Wednesday.  On the forecast track, Newton should be near or over
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday
morning, and move over portions of the southern Baja California
peninsula late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional
strengthening is likely, and Newton is forecast to become a
hurricane by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center, primarily to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  For the Baja California peninsula, hurricane conditions are
expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area early
Tuesday morning.  Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength by late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area later on Tuesday.

For the Mexican mainland, tropical storm conditions are occurring
from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes today.  Farther northward,
tropical storm conditions are expected over northwestern Mexico
beginning Tuesday morning, and these conditions will gradually
spread northward throughout the day. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the tropical storm watch areas in Sinaloa early
Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch in
Sonora by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Newton is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches for coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, as well as much of the state of
Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
through Tuesday night.  These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain.  Rainfall amounts of up to 2 inches are expected across
portions of southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico from late
Wednesday into Thursday, with localized amounts of up to 3 inches
possible.  These rains could result in flash flooding.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Newton are expected to affect the
coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday, and begin to subside
on Wednesday.  Swells should increase across the southern and
central portions of the Baja California peninsula today and Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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