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TROPICAL STORM JAVIER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
600 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016

...JAVIER NEARING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 108.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Los Barriles to Todos Santos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for
* Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Los Barriles to San Evaristo
* Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* San Evaristo to Loreto
* Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was
located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 108.9 West.  Javier is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday.  On
the forecast track, the center of Javier is forecast to pass near or
over the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late this
afternoon or evening, and move near the west coast of Baja
California Sur tonight and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is possible during the next day or so, and
Javier could become a hurricane as it passes near the southern
portion of Baja California.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Javier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches over coastal parts of the Mexican states of Sinaloa
and southern Sonora into Baja California Sur with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 10 inches through Wednesday morning.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected over the extreme southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area by
Monday evening.  Tropical storm conditions are expected over the
remainder of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
within the warning area by late Monday afternoon.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area over the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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