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TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016
900 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016
Javier has not become better organized since yesterday evening,
with a significant decrease in the associated deep convection
aside from a small burst near or north of the estimated center.
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB remain at T3.0
corresponding to 45 kt, and this will be the advisory intensity.
Since the vertical shear is forecast to remain very low for the
next couple of days, some strengthening is still forecast while
Javier moves near the Baja California peninsula. The official
intensity forecast for the next 24 to 36 hours is above the
intensity guidance, but close to the latest SHIPS prediction.
Within the next couple of days, cooling SSTs, land interaction, and
an increasingly stable air mass are likely to induce weakening.
Although the center is difficult to locate, it is estimated that
the northwestward motion, 310/9 kt, continues. Javier is forecast
to continue moving around the western periphery of a mid-level
anticyclone centered over Texas. The official forecast is slightly
to the left of the previous one but on the eastern side of the
track guidance suite.
Although the NHC forecast does not show Javier becoming a hurricane,
it is prudent to keep the hurricane warning in place for the
southern Baja California peninsula, at least until an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigates the system this afternoon.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 22.0N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 22.5N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 23.4N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 24.4N 111.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 25.7N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 27.5N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND