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HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016
Georgette continues to weaken at a fast pace this morning. Central
deep convection has been diminishing in areal coverage and
intensity, and using a blend of Dvorak T- and Current
Intensity-numbers from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity is set at
70 kt. Georgette will be moving over sub-25 deg C waters and
through an environment of dry mid-level air, so continued weakening
is expected. The cyclone's intensity should drop to tropical
storm status today, and below storm strength within 48 hours or
sooner. The official intensity forecast is a little above the
latest numerical model consensus, IVCN.
The slow forward motion continues, and the initial motion estimate
is northwestward or 315/4 kt. Georgette is located to the south
of a weakness in the subtropical ridge and this has likely
contributed to the slow northwestward motion. The ridge is
predicted to build somewhat, and as the weakening tropical cyclone
responds more to the lower-level flow, a gradual turn to the left
with some increase in forward speed is expected during the forecast
period. The official forecast is only slightly slower than the
previous one albeit along about the same trajectory. This is close
to the latest model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 18.5N 128.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 18.8N 128.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 19.5N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 20.5N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 21.5N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0600Z 22.0N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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