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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
2100 UTC SUN JUL 17 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 112.5W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 112.5W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 112.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.0N 113.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.6N 115.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.0N 117.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.4N 119.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.0N 123.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 20.0N 128.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 133.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 112.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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