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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
800 AM PDT WED JUL 13 2016

The cloud pattern is gradually deteriorating, and deep convection
is confined to a small area near the center. Microwave and
conventional infrared images continue to show that the low- and
mid-level centers are not vertically aligned, which is another
indication of weakening.  In addition, subjective Dvorak estimates
from TAFB and SAB, as well as objective numbers from CIMMS, argue
for a reduction of the winds. Therefore, the initial intensity is
set at 55 kt.

Celia is already over cooler waters, and the wind shear is forecast
to gradually increase. The presence of these conditions will
result in weakening, and Celia is expected to degenerate into a
tropical depression in a couple of days or sooner and into a remnant
low thereafter. The NHC forecast follows the trend of the SHIPS
guidance and the intensity model consensus.

The cyclone appears to be moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees
at 10 kt around the periphery of the subtropical ridge. Given that
Celia is forecast to weaken and become a shallow system, the cyclone
most likely will move toward the west in a couple of days steered by
the prevailing low-level easterly flow. All track models are tightly
clustered, and the NHC forecast, which is similar to the previous
one, is in the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 19.1N 132.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 19.8N 134.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 20.8N 136.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 21.7N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 22.0N 140.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 23.0N 145.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/1200Z 23.5N 150.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1200Z 24.0N 154.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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