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TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
1100 AM AST WED OCT 05 2016

Thunderstorm activity has been bursting since the overnight hours
near Nicole's center, which is located near the northwestern edge
of the deep convection.  Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB
and SAB remain 3.0, so Nicole's intensity is held at 45 kt.
Nicole's small circulation has found itself beneath an upper-level
low and shear axis, so the vertical shear affecting the system does
not seem as strong as various large-scale calculations of 25-30 kt
from the north would suggest.  Nicole could continue to be situated
under the shear axis for another 24 hours or so.  But after that
time, the shear axis is forecast to dissipate, and the large-scale
shear numbers indicated in the SHIPS diagnostics should be more
representative.  The intensity models show very little change in
intensity during the next couple of days, and the NHC forecast
holds Nicole's strength through day 3.  The models then show a
general weakening trend on days 4 and 5, and that's what is
indicated in the advisory.

Nicole has picked up a little speed with an initial motion of 300/7
kt.  The cyclone is expected to turn northwestward soon and
maintain its speed for the next 24 hours while it moves around a
mid-level high.  After that time, a mid-latitude shortwave trough
drops southward from New England, causing Nicole to put on the
brakes.  While the UKMET and GFDL models show the trough pushing
Nicole southwestward, the remainder of the models induce a motion
with an eastward component.  The NHC forecast continues to favor the
eastern models, and the spread among the guidance suggests that
Nicole will meander during the day 2-5 time range.  Except for a
slight westward shift in the track on days 3-5, the NHC track is
fairly similar to the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 25.0N  62.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 26.0N  63.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 27.3N  64.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 28.1N  65.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 28.3N  64.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 27.3N  63.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 27.5N  63.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 29.5N  64.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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