ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016
Nicole's cloud pattern hasn't changed much since earlier today.
All of the deep convection is occurring over the eastern semicircle
of the circulation as the storm continues to experience fairly
strong northwesterly shear. The advisory intensity is held at 45
kt based on continuity from the earlier scatterometer data. Nicole
is likely to continue to experience strong shear over the next
several days, which should eventually result in weakening. The
official intensity forecast is close to the latest LGEM guidance.
The tropical cyclone continues moving northwestward, or 305/8 kt.
Nicole should continue moving northwestward for the next couple of
days, to the southwest of a mid-level high. Later in the forecast
period, another high builds to the northwest of the cyclone and
this would block the forward progress of Nicole in 4-5 days. The
official track forecast leans toward the latest ECMWF prediction.
This is a little faster than the previous forecast for the next few
days, and a little east of it in the latter part of the forecast
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 24.1N 61.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 25.0N 62.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 26.5N 63.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 27.8N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 29.0N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 29.0N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 29.0N 64.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 30.0N 63.0W 25 KT 30 MPH