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HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016
...150-MPH MATTHEW FINALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Le Mole St. Nicholas
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from east of Le Mole St. Nicholas to the northern
border with the Dominican Republic
* Cuba from Camaguey province to Guantanamo province
Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Watch could be needed for
portions of the Bahamas on Sunday.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 73.6 West. Matthew
began to move toward the north-northwest at 7 mph (11 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue on Sunday, followed by a turn
toward the north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of
Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with
higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected
to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area
in Jamaica and Haiti on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to first reach these areas by late Sunday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
Monday night or Tuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Monday.
RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican
Republic and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.
Matthew is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to
2 inches over Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through Sunday. Matthew is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over
northern Colombia, northwest Venezuela, and western Jamaica, with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...
Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...6 to 9 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.
SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.