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HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD TO SURF CITY
NORTH CAROLINA.  THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO COCOA
BEACH HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO
DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT
NORTH CAROLINA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COCOA BEACH TO SURF CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SEBASTIAN INLET TO COCOA BEACH
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IN THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  80.5W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  947 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE  80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE  90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  80.5W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N  80.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 30.8N  80.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 32.5N  79.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 33.5N  78.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...200NE 160SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.5N  76.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.0N  74.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 28.0N  75.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 27.0N  76.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N  80.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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