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HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
2100 UTC TUE OCT 04 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO GOLDEN BEACH...
FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...
GRANMA...AND LAS TUNAS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...AND RAGGED ISLAND
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...EXUMA...RUM CAY...
SAN SALVADOR...AND CAT ISLAND
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...
BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND
NEW PROVIDENCE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
* GOLDEN BEACH TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HAITI
* SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N  74.3W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  949 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT.......100NE 150SE  80SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N  74.3W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  74.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N  74.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N  75.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.0N  76.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.9N  78.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 29.5N  80.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 110SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 33.5N  78.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 40.0N  71.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N  74.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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