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HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
0300 UTC SAT OCT 01 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER TO RIOHACHA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA AND
ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.
INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
MATTHEW.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  72.3W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  941 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  30SE  30SW  75NW.
34 KT.......180NE  60SE  50SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  72.3W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  72.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.3N  73.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE  80SE  50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.7N  74.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  60SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.6N  75.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  70SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.0N  76.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE  70SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.0N  76.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 23.1N  76.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 26.0N  76.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N  72.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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