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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  36A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
800 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016

...KARL CONTINUING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED...
...FORECAST TO PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA EARLY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 64.8W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 28.1
North, longitude 64.8 West.  Karl has slowed down recently, and is
now moving toward the north-northwest at around 9 mph (15 km/h).  An
increase in forward speed and a turn toward the north are expected
today, followed by a turn toward the northeast by tonight or early
Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of Karl should pass
near or to the east of Bermuda late tonight or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Karl
could be near hurricane strength as it passes near or east of
Bermuda tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
primarily to the north of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight.

RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through Saturday and early Sunday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are already affecting Bermuda and
are expected to increase during the next couple of days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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