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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016

...HERMINE HEADING INTO THE LOW COUNTRY OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 81.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nassau Sound to south of Fenwick Island
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Fenwick Island to west of Watch Hill
* Southern Delaware Bay

Interests elsewhere along the United States northeast coast should
monitor the progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located by NOAA Doppler radar and surface observations inland over
southeastern Georgia near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 81.3 West.
Hermine is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours with a
gradual reduction in forward speed expected on Saturday.  On the
forecast track the center of Hermine will move across coastal South
Carolina later today, move over coastal North Carolina tonight, and
move offshore of the North Carolina coast on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through Saturday morning.
Strengthening is forecast once the center of Hermine moves offshore
Saturday afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km),
mainly to the east of the center.  CORMP buoy 41033, located about
20 miles east-northeast of Hilton Head, South Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 42 mph (68 km/h) and a gust of 58 mph
(94 km/h).  An automated station at Malcom McKinnon airport on St.
Simons Island in Georgia recently reported a wind gust of 56 mph (90
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within
the warning area along the Atlantic coast today through Saturday.
Tropical storm wind gusts are possible near the center of Hermine
through today.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
area on Sunday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  There is the possibility
of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours at most
coastal locations between the North Carolina/Virginia border and
Bridgeport, Connecticut.  For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is
available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

NC/VA border to Bridgeport, Connecticut...2 to 4 feet

RAINFALL:  Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches over the southeastern United States and
portions of the lower mid-Atlantic states from southern and eastern
Georgia into South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.  Across
southeast Virginia and the lower Eastern Shore of Virginia and
Maryland, storm total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are
expected.  These rains may cause life-threatening floods and flash
floods.  Rain bands south of Hermine are expected to bring an
additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across portions of central and
northern Florida.  Heavy rainfall could reach the coastal areas of
Delaware and New Jersey beginning Saturday night.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible across coastal portions of
North and South Carolina today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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