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TROPICAL STORM HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
1500 UTC THU SEP 01 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.  A  TROPICAL STORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SURF CITY TO OREGON INLET NORTH
CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.  THE HURRICANE WATCH AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF THE WALTON/BAY
COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER TO MEXICO BEACH

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER
* WEST OF MEXICO BEACH TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER
* WEST OF MEXICO BEACH TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE
* MARINELAND TO SURF CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UNITED STATES MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N  86.0W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE  60SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N  86.0W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N  86.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 29.0N  84.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.1N  82.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 33.1N  80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.2N  76.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.0N  72.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  60SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 38.5N  71.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 39.5N  70.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N  86.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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