Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Parts of the U.S. Government are closed. However, because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown. For critical weather information, please visit www.weather.gov. To learn more, see www.commerce.gov.

Hurricane PATRICIA


ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
700 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE PATRICIA WITH 150-MPH WINDS HEADED
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 104.8W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was located
near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 104.8 West. Patricia is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected by early Friday, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of
Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area Friday
afternoon or evening.

Satellite images indicate that Patricia has continued to intensify
and maximum sustained winds have reached near 150 mph (240 km/h)
with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Patricia could become a
category 5 hurricane overnight, and is expected to remain an
extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the
hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to first reach the warning areas by late
tonight or early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area late Friday.

RAINFALL:  Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and
Guerrero later today into Saturday. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions
of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN