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Hurricane PATRICIA


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HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
1230 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

The purpose of this special advisory is to update for a significant
increase in the intensity of the hurricane.  Reports from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Patricia has intensified at an
incredible rate since yesterday.  The plane measured peak 700-mb
flight level winds of 179 kt in the northeastern eyewall, and this
may be an unprecedented value for a tropical cyclone.  Using the 90
percent adjustment value to convert this to a surface wind speed
yields an intensity estimate of 160 kt, which is tied with eastern
north Pacific Hurricane Linda of 1997 for the strongest on record.
A dropsonde released into the eye measured a sea-level pressure of
894 mb with 25 kt of wind. Adjusting this pressure for the surface
winds (i.e. the drop did not land into the actual center of the eye)
gives an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb, which breaks
the record for the lowest pressure of an east Pacific hurricane.
Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today due to eyewall
replacements, but Patricia should maintain category 5 status through
landfall this afternoon or evening.

No changes are made to the track forecast from the previous
advisory.

This special advisory replaces the 0600 UTC intermediate advisory
for Patricia.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane this afternoon or evening.  Preparations
to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be
completed as tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect
the area.

2.  In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0530Z 16.5N 105.3W  160 KT 185 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W  160 KT 185 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W  160 KT 185 MPH...INLAND
 36H  24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 48H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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