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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072015
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2015

Felicia remains a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with a cluster
of convection over the southeastern quadrant.  An ASCAT-B overpass
at 0523 UTC showed an area of 25-30 kt winds in the northeastern
semicircle, and this is the basis for keeping the initial intensity
at 30 kt.  The depression is entraining a dry and stable airmass and
will be passing over decreasing sea surface temperatures.  Thus,
continued weakening is predicted.  The official forecast shows
Felicia becoming a remnant low by 24 hours, with the remnant low
expected to dissipate in 3 to 4 days.

The initial motion is 310/10.  The cyclone is expected to turn
west-northwestward and then westward during the next 48 hours on the
south side of a low- to mid-level ridge.  The track guidance has
shifted a little to the north since the previous advisory, and
based on this forecast track is also shifted northward.  The new
track lies a little to the south of the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 21.2N 117.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 22.0N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 22.7N 120.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/1800Z 23.1N 121.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/0600Z 23.2N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0600Z 23.5N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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