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TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
200 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2015

The main convective band around Enrique is becoming increasingly
fragmented.  Despite this, Dvorak current intensity estimates from
ADT, TAFB, and SAB remain at minimal tropical storm strength. Thus
Enrique's maximum winds are assessed at 35 kt.  A partial pass by
the ASCAT-B scatterometer indicated that the tropical-storm-force
winds, if they exist, are within no more than 60 nm from the center.

It appears that Enrique will continue to have difficult maintaining
organized convection, as the atmosphere in which it is embedded has
limited thermodynamical instability, and the SSTs should drop below
26.5 deg C in less than two days.  Additionally, the vertical shear
- which is low now - is anticipated to increase to about 15 kt
out of the south in about 36 hours, as Enrique reaches the
western periphery of an upper-level high.  The combination of these
effects should result in gradual weakening of the cyclone after
a day or two and the system becoming a remnant low in about
four days.  The official intensity forecast is based upon the
multimodel consensus technique - IVCN - and is reduced somewhat from
the previous NHC forecast.

Enrique is moving toward the northwest at about 10 kt, primarily due
to a deep-layer ridge to its north.  The dynamical models have been
unanimously in agreement that Enrique should have already taken a
west-northwestward turn, which has not yet materialized today.  It
is possible though that in the last couple of hours that Enrique has
begun this turn toward the west-northwest.  After moving toward the
west-northwest at about the same rate of speed for the next
three to four days, it is anticipated that Enrique's movement as a
remnant low should slow as the lower tropospheric steering flow
weakens. The reliable dynamical models are tightly clustered on this
scenario. The official track forecast is based upon the multimodel
consensus technique - TVCN - and is slightly north of the predicted
track from the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 16.7N 127.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 17.4N 128.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 18.1N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 18.4N 131.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 18.8N 132.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 20.0N 135.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 20.5N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1800Z 19.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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