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HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
300 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015

The cloud pattern of Dolores has continued to deteriorate, with an
eye no longer apparent, and the coverage and intensity of deep
convection on the wane.  The current intensity estimate is 70 kt
which is a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  This may
be generous, considering the data T-numbers from these agencies.
The tropical cyclone will be moving over progressively cooler sea
surface temperatures over the next few days, and into a more stable
air mass.  Additionally, the dynamical guidance shows a significant
increase in vertical shear over Dolores in 48 to 72 hours.  The
official intensity forecast shows a steady weakening trend, but is
still somewhat higher than the latest intensity model consensus.

With the eye no longer discernible, the center has become more
difficult to track.  The initial motion estimate is a somewhat
uncertain 295/9.  Over the next several days, Dolores is expected to
move along the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level
subtropical ridge extending from the southwestern United States.
Late in the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to become
steered by a cyclonic gyre to the southwest of southern California,
and to move in a counterclockwise fashion.  The official track
forecast is near the dynamical model consensus and is similar to the
previous NHC forecast.  This is also between the latest GFS and
ECMWF solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 21.2N 114.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 21.4N 115.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 22.0N 116.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 23.5N 118.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 25.3N 119.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  20/0600Z 29.0N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/0600Z 30.5N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/0600Z 29.0N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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