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HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
900 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015

After the strengthening episode noted earlier today, the intensity
trend has, at least temporarily, leveled off.  The cloud pattern
has not become significantly better organized, and Dvorak T-numbers
have not increased, over the past several hours.  Thus the current
intensity estimate is held at 65 kt.  The dynamical guidance calls
for decreasing shear and the cyclone should continue to traverse a
very warm ocean during the next 48 hours.  So, although Dolores has
not been strengthening in the short term, there remains a high
likelihood for a significant increase in intensity over the next
couple of days.  The official wind speed forecast, like the
previous one, calls for the system to become a major hurricane
by Wednesday.  This is similar to the latest LGEM model prediction.

Dolores has slowed down some more, and is moving a little to the
left of its earlier heading.  Satellite fixes yield a motion
estimate of 285/05 kt.  The slow forward speed should continue as
Dolores moves near the periphery of a weak mid-tropospheric ridge
to its north.  Little change has been made to the previous track
forecast, and this official forecast is near the southern side of
the dynamical track guidance suite.  This is closest to the
latest ECMWF prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 17.2N 106.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 17.5N 107.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 17.9N 108.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 18.4N 109.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 18.9N 110.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 20.2N 112.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 21.7N 116.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 23.5N 119.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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