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Tropical Storm CARLOS
ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 A 1602 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed that Carlos has strengthened somewhat during the day. Based on the scatterometer data, the intensity is set to 45 kt. This is in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The tropical storm is currently experiencing moderate northeasterly shear, and convection is limited to a large band stretching around the western and southern portions of the circulation. Cloud tops have warmed a little during the day, though a recent burst of convection, located just southwest of the center, suggests that this is only a temporary trend. The ECMWF and GFS forecast that the moderate shear will persist for the next day or two. After that, a more favorable upper-level wind environment and warm SSTs will likely support more strengthening. The official intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous advisory, and is near the intensity consensus, excluding the GFDL which shows significant land interaction and is considered an outlier. Carlos has been moving very slowly north-northwestward at about 2 kt for the past several hours. The motion is more certain now since the ASCAT pass also provided an excellent center fix. No significant changes have been made to the track forecast. Carlos will remain embedded within a weak steering pattern for the next 48 hours, before a deep-layer ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico to northwestern Mexico strengthens. This should force the cyclone to begin moving west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico, at a slightly faster pace. The forecast track is near the multi- model consensus, with a little extra weight given to the GFS and ECMWF solutions. The initial wind radii were adjusted based on the extremely useful 1602 UTC ASCAT data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 14.1N 100.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 14.3N 100.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 14.6N 100.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 14.9N 100.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 15.1N 101.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 15.7N 102.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 17.0N 105.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 18.5N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch/Zelinsky NNNN